In 1993, Samuel Huntington foresaw a “clash of civilizations,” predicting that Western dominance would be challenged by rising non-Western powers with different ambitions.
Now, with the ongoing tensions between Israel, the United States, and other Western countries on one side and Palestine, Lebanon, Iran, and non-Western countries on the other side – many have raised the question of whether a clash of civilizations is no longer just a theory, but a reality. Is it about to happen, or perhaps it is already happening?
So, where do we stand with the current conflict in the Middle East? Can we witness an escalation that might spark a war of civilizations, as Huntington predicted in 1993?
First, What is the Clash of Civilizations?
First proposed in 1993, Huntington’s theory argues that the primary source of a conflict in the post-Cold War era no longer derives from economic or ideological reasons. Instead, it is about cultural and civilizational differences. Essentially, Huntington suggested that the world would be divided by factors like religion, ethnicity, and historical heritage, and these would result in a civilizational conflict.
According to Huntington, the future of conflicts and wars will no longer be between countries or nations but between civilizations. This means that any conflict involves two (or more) civilizations. So, for instance, Russia-Ukraine is not just a conflict between two countries about ideology, land, or ethnicity – it is a conflict between the Orthodox and Western civilizations. Each country gets the needed aid from its civilization in the form of economic and military support, creating a battle between civilizations.
As part of his thesis, Huntington essentially divided the world into nine civilizations (as seen in the map below):
According to Huntington, the 9 civilizations include the Western, Orthodox, Islamic, Latin American, Buddhist, Hindu, African, Japanese, and Sinic. Other variations also include Israel as a civilization, creating 10 civilizations.
It also must be noted that the Hungtintun division has been criticized on many issues, particularly for the lack of comprehension. In other words, his theory does not include many other civilizations.
Also, it must be noted that when Huntington published his book, his arguments mostly revolved around conflicts in Europe and Asia. At the time of publication, Huntington focused on the Soviet-Afghan conflict, the First Gulf War, and the Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, and Kosovo conflict. In other words, the thesis is subjective to a specific time, although the idea remains valid.
And, now, more than thirty years later – with the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the war between Israel and Palestine/Iran – Huntington’s theory seems to be facing a real-world test.
Read More: Israel vs Palestine: How Can This Conflict Be Solved?
The Israel-Palestine/Iran Conflict – Can It Be the Trigger for a Clash Between Civilizations?
For more than three decades, the clash of civilizations was a controversial theory that also gained many critics along the way. With that notion, many people claim that Huntington’s thesis has not been proven to be accurate enough to explain the world’s political dynamic. What’s more, it could be argued that Huntington’s thesis lacks some basic aspects, including the way he constructed civilizations. For instance, Asia is divided into Hindu, Buddhist, and Japanese, which basically lack crucial components such as China or the North-South Korea conflict. Similarly, in the Middle East, there’s no clear separation between Sunnis and Shias or Christians and Muslim Arabs.
However, despite the criticism, the idea of the clash between civilizations remains intact. And, with the ongoing war in the Middle East (as well as the Russia-Ukraine war), it seems that the theory indeed can be put to the test.
When referring specifically to the Middle East, things get pretty clear- The battle is between the mostly Christian/Jewish West and the Middle-Eastern Islamic civilizations and between democratic and authoritarian systems. Since the beginning of the Israel-Palestinian conflict in October last year, the clash between Western and Islamic civilizations has clear lines. Israel, so far, is backed by Western civilization, particularly the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and France. On the other side of the fence, Iran’s support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza is undeniable, with Turkey, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and other Muslim countries being part of the Islamic civilization. Perhaps the only part of this equation that may put Huntington’s theory into question is Saudi Arabia, which, in this particular conflict, could be placed out of the Islamic civilization.
Additionally, China and Russia also play a huge role in this clash of civilizations, with both nations supporting Iran in various ways over the past few months. This could be linked to the battle between democratic and authoritarian systems and the economic ties between Russia, China, and Iran. Either way, if a clash of civilizations is about to happen – Russia and China will be part of this battle, directly or indirectly.
Ultimately, the current Middle East can potentially trigger a war or a conflict between civilizations – most likely more than any other conflict that has taken place since Hungtinton originally coined the term.
How the Israel-Hamas/Hezbollah War Revived the Clash of Civilizations Theory
In the world of international relations, Hungtington’s clash of civilizations hypothesis remains a hot debate, even 30 years after the book was published. Some call it nonsense, while others consider it an accurate prediction of global politics.
But it’s impossible to ignore the new world order that has been forming since the Middle East war started. Clearly, the ongoing tension in the Middle East is not just a war between two nations; it is a true clash of civilizations, as Huntington predicted. Some might rightfully argue that this is not a new phenomenon; this international political order of civilizations has been happening for decades.
Yet, as the Middle East is getting closer to a regional war, especially following the recent Hezbollah pager attack by Israel – it seems as if the clash of civilizations is back in fashion. Evidently, quite recently, we’ve heard various speeches from world politicians addressing the issue of the clash between civilizations. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said in a speech at the US Congress that ‘this is not a clash of civilizations. It’s a clash between barbarism and civilization. Geert Wilders also mentioned several times the ongoing clash of civilizations between the Democratic Western civilization and the Islamic civilization.
In short, the Israel-Hamas/Hezbollah/Iran war has revived Huntington’s theory, or at least put it to the test. During this war, we can witness a coherent separation between civilizations, a real modern clash of civilizations. And the result of a clash of civilizations can be a double-edged sword – if a clash between civilizations sparks, another world war can become a reality. On the other hand, the fear of a clash of civilizations can potentially ensure that all sides are trying to prevent a wider regional Middle East war.
