State of Energy
& Commodities
Q3 2026
The biggest oil shock in history. Gold at record highs. Silver entering price discovery. Copper running short. And grain markets sitting on dangerously thin stocks. Here is where every major commodity stands entering Q3.
Global commodity prices are forecast to rise 16% in 2026 — the first annual increase since 2022. The World Bank calls it 25% higher than anticipated in January 2026. The Iran war is the catalyst but not the only driver. Structural supply deficits in copper, silver, and uranium were already building before a single bomb dropped.
Precious metals prices are forecast to surge 42% in 2026 to record highs. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold at $4,900 by December 2026. Silver broke above its long-term resistance following a 120% surge in 2025 and has entered price discovery territory. JPMorgan forecasts silver at $56 per ounce in 2026. A fifth consecutive year of structural supply deficit underpins both.
Goldman Sachs forecasts copper at $11,400 per tonne in 2026 based on an ex-US supply deficit. The structural shortage we have been writing about for years is arriving. AI data centres, EV charging infrastructure, and renewable energy all require enormous amounts of copper, and the mining industry cannot respond fast enough. The coming copper shortage is not a prediction anymore. It is a present-tense reality.
JPMorgan warns that global agricultural stocks-to-use ratios remain near multi-year lows for 2026/27 and 2027/28. There are no imminent signs of shortage in most grains today. But the buffer against a supply shock — a drought, a disease, an unexpected trade disruption — is thinner than at any point in recent history. Wheat and corn have more upside than soybeans, which face bearish pressure from trade dynamics.
The Asian LNG benchmark surged 94% over March 2026. European natural gas prices rose 59% in the same month. New LNG supply projects coming online in the second half of 2026 should moderate prices, but the structural reality is that natural gas is the indispensable bridge fuel of the energy transition. Every country phasing out coal needs gas to fill the gap, and the Iran war has made that dependency painfully visible.
Let’s start with the number that defines 2026 in commodity markets. Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel in mid-March, driven by severe disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. By end-March it had surged about $46 a barrel — its largest monthly increase on record. The World Bank described the initial supply disruption as the largest in the history of the global oil market.
The market has since partially stabilised. A ceasefire announcement in early April allowed prices to ease, and the release of 400 million barrels from IEA emergency reserves helped. Temporary sanctions relief for exports from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela added additional supply. But Brent remains more than 50% above its levels at the start of 2026, when it was trading around $64 a barrel.
The forecast picture is complicated by the tension between the war’s impact and the underlying structural picture. Before the Iran war, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both expected oil to decline in 2026 — Goldman to $56, JPMorgan to $58 — because non-OPEC supply was growing three times faster than demand. The World Bank’s current baseline of $86 for 2026 and $70 for 2027 reflects the war premium on top of that bearish structural outlook. If the ceasefire holds and the Strait fully reopens, the underlying oversupply story reasserts itself and prices fall significantly. If it doesn’t hold, the severe scenario of $115 becomes the relevant number.
Gold
Gold enters Q3 2026 with the same structural support that has driven it through two years of record prices — declining real yields, elevated government spending, persistent inflation, and central bank accumulation. What is interesting about the current gold rally is how it continues to feel undercrowded despite the price. Even after breaking records through 2024 and 2025, institutional positioning still has room to expand.
Goldman Sachs forecasts gold at $4,900 by December 2026. The major bank consensus clusters around $4,500-$4,700, with upside toward $5,000 if macro conditions persist. The central bank demand story is the one most investors underestimate. China, Turkey, Russia, and India are all adding to gold reserves structurally — not trading in and out. That sustained demand creates a floor under the price that short-term volatility cannot easily breach.
Silver
Silver is arguably the more interesting story right now. After a 120% surge in 2025 — its best year in decades — silver has broken above long-term resistance and entered what analysts are calling price discovery territory. JPMorgan forecasts $56 per ounce in 2026. The structural case is compelling: this is the fifth consecutive year of a supply deficit, and industrial demand is accelerating from solar panels, EV components, and electronics. Silver is simultaneously a precious metal and an industrial metal, which means it benefits from both safe haven flows and the green energy buildout.
Gold is running on macro. Silver is running on both macro and industrial demand. The combination makes it one of the more interesting commodity stories of 2026.
If you have been following AllinAllSpace, you will know we have been covering the structural copper shortage story for some time. The coming copper shortage — why the world is running out of its most important metal — is no longer a forward-looking piece. It is becoming a present-tense reality.
Goldman Sachs forecasts copper at $11,400 per tonne in 2026, based on an ex-US supply deficit. The World Bank’s metals and minerals price index rose 13% in Q1 2026 alone, driven substantially by copper and aluminium. The Iran war has added supply chain disruption on top of structural tightness that was already building.
The demand side of the copper story is straightforward and overwhelming. AI data centres require vast amounts of copper for wiring, cooling systems, and power infrastructure. Each electric vehicle requires three to four times the copper of an equivalent petrol car. Solar panels and wind turbines require significantly more copper per unit of power generated than fossil fuel plants. And the grid upgrades needed to support all of this — smart meters, transmission lines, substations — are themselves enormous copper consumers.
The supply side simply cannot keep up. New copper mines take 15-20 years from discovery to production. The pipeline of projects that were deferred during the low-price years of 2015-2020 has left a gap that is only now becoming structurally visible. Chile and Peru, which together produce over 40% of global copper supply, are both facing declining ore grades and increasing political and regulatory complexity around new mine development.
We have covered uranium extensively in our analysis of why uranium will be even more critical to the global economy in 2035 than it is today. The short version for this report: the structural supply deficit that has been building since Fukushima forced mines to close in 2011 is now being met by the most favourable demand environment uranium has seen in decades.
Nuclear power is no longer a politically awkward subject. The AI energy crisis has made every major technology company a nuclear advocate. France, Japan, the US, the UK, and a growing list of other countries have all accelerated reactor programmes. SMR development is moving through regulatory approval. Uranium spot prices have risen from $20 a pound in 2016 to around $80 now. The market is structurally long demand and structurally short supply — and mine restarts take years.
No energy story in 2026 is more important and less discussed in mainstream commentary than natural gas. The Iran war made the dependence visible in the starkest possible way. The Asian LNG benchmark surged 94% over March alone. European natural gas prices rose 59% in the same month. Competition to secure liquefied natural gas intensified across both regions as Persian Gulf supply dried up.
The longer-term picture is more nuanced. New LNG supply projects are coming online in the second half of 2026, primarily from the US and Qatar. JPMorgan forecasts TTF European gas prices at 28.75 EUR/MWh for 2026, declining to 24.75 EUR/MWh in 2027 as new supply projects come online. The structural reality is that natural gas is the non-negotiable bridge between coal-powered systems and the renewable future. Every coal plant that shuts needs something to replace it. Until batteries and other storage technologies scale sufficiently, that something is gas.
The agricultural story in 2026 is less dramatic than energy or metals — but potentially more important to the most vulnerable parts of the global population. JPMorgan’s Tracey Allen, agricultural commodities strategist, put it plainly: “Global agricultural stocks-to-use ratios remain close to multi-year lows for 2026/27 and 2027/28. This declining availability base, driven by low producer margins, raises sensitivity and price volatility to supply-side disruptions.”
What that means in practice: there is no imminent grain shortage. But the margin for error is thin. A significant drought in a major producing region, an unexpected disease outbreak, or a trade disruption could push prices sharply higher with very little buffer to absorb the shock.
| Grain | 2026 price forecast | Direction | Key driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | $5.65/bu (JPM) | Bullish | Tight global stocks, Russia/Ukraine supply uncertainty, fertiliser costs from Iran war |
| Corn | Bullish bias | Bullish | JPMorgan bullish; ethanol demand, feed demand, China trade uncertainty |
| Soybeans | Bearish bias | Bearish | China halted US soybean purchases in early 2025; South American supply growing |
| Rice | Elevated | Neutral | India export restrictions eased but Asian monsoon uncertainty remains |
The fertiliser story is directly linked to the energy crisis. Fertiliser prices are projected to climb 31% in 2026, driven by higher natural gas prices — natural gas is the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertiliser production. Higher fertiliser costs squeeze farmer margins, which reduces planting and investment, which tightens future grain supply. This is the feedback loop that makes the energy-food price connection so consequential for the poorest consumers globally.
The soft commodities story in 2026 is largely one of unwinding after the supply shocks of 2024-2025. Cocoa and coffee prices surged dramatically in 2024-2025 on severe weather-related crop failures in West Africa and Brazil. Those supply crunches are now gradually resolving as conditions normalise and producers respond to higher prices with increased planting. Beverage prices declined sharply in early 2026 as a result, pulling the agricultural commodity price index down despite the overall commodity upswing.
Brazilian and Vietnamese crops recovering after 2024-2025 weather disruptions. Prices still elevated historically but declining from record peaks. Watch for La Nina development which could affect Brazilian harvest.
West African crops improving after the 2023-2024 disease and weather crisis that pushed prices to record highs. Structural concerns about aging trees and climate change in key growing regions remain long-term risks.
JPMorgan sees upside in ICE No. 11 sugar. Brazil’s ethanol production competes with sugar production for cane. Higher energy prices make ethanol more attractive, diverting supply from sugar markets.
JPMorgan sees clear upside in ICE No. 2 cotton. Trade tensions affecting synthetic fibre supply chains from Asia make natural cotton relatively more attractive. Watch India export policy.
Watch #1 — The Hormuz Negotiations
US and Iranian officials began a 60-day negotiation period in late June. If those talks succeed and the Strait fully reopens, energy prices fall significantly and the war premium across all commodities unwinds. If they fail, the severe scenario reasserts itself. This single variable drives more commodity market uncertainty than anything else on this list.
Watch #2 — Copper Mine Supply Response
Several major copper projects are in various stages of development. Any significant announcement of acceleration or delay in major Chilean or Peruvian projects will be a signal about how quickly the structural deficit can close. At current prices, the economics of new copper development have rarely been more compelling. But between compelling economics and actual new supply lies a decade of permitting, environmental review, and construction.
Watch #3 — Northern Hemisphere Grain Harvest
July and August are critical months for the Northern Hemisphere grain harvest. Any significant weather event — drought in the US Corn Belt, heat stress in European wheat zones, flooding in South Asian rice paddies — in thin-stock conditions could push agricultural prices sharply higher. With fertiliser costs already elevated and farm margins compressed, the capacity of producers to absorb and respond to a negative shock is limited.
The commodity complex in 2026 is being shaped by the collision of two forces: a geopolitical shock that has disrupted supply across energy, metals, and food simultaneously, and a structural transformation of demand driven by AI, electrification, and the energy transition. The Iran war will eventually resolve. The structural demand story will not. Copper, silver, and uranium are the commodities where the structural argument is strongest and the supply response is slowest. The oil and natural gas story is more complicated — structurally bearish, geopolitically elevated. Grains are the risk nobody is pricing until the day a crop fails. Keep watching.
Data draws from the World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook April 2026, Goldman Sachs Commodity Outlook 2026, JPMorgan Global Commodities Strategy, and IG Commodities Outlook. All figures accurate as of June 2026.
This report represents the editorial opinion of AllinAllSpace and does not constitute financial or investment advice. AllinAllSpace is not a registered investment advisor. Commodity markets involve significant risk.