The Israeli Shekel Just Hit a 30-Year High. Here’s Why.

Last updated: May 2026. Originally published October 2021.

When we first wrote this article in October 2021, the USD/ILS was trading around 3.20, and the Israeli shekel was already considered one of the world’s strongest currencies. We noted at the time that if the trend continued, the pair could eventually reach 2.80–3.00 — a scenario we described as “extreme.”

That extreme scenario has arrived.

The Israeli shekel touched 2.89 against the US dollar in May 2026 — its strongest level since October 1993. Over the past 12 months, the USD/ILS rate has fallen nearly 18%, meaning the dollar has lost roughly one-fifth of its value against the shekel in a single year. Over the past decade, the US dollar has declined 24.48% against the Israeli shekel — one of the most sustained currency appreciations of any developed market currency in the world.

This is no longer a story about a small, resilient economy punching above its weight. It is a story about structural forces that have converged to make the shekel one of the strongest performing currencies in the world — and a question about how much further it can go before something gives.

Where We Stand: The Numbers

The current USD/ILS exchange rate is approximately 2.90, trading within a 52-week range of 2.89 to 3.68. To put that in context:

• In October 2023, at the height of post-October 7th geopolitical risk, the shekel weakened to 4.08 per dollar — its weakest level in years
• By the end of 2025, it had recovered to around 3.28
• On February 12, 2026, the dollar hit a historic low against the shekel of 3.068 — its weakest since November 1995
• By May 2026, it pushed further to 2.89 — levels not seen since 1993

That is a 29% strengthening of the shekel against the dollar in roughly 18 months. For a currency, that is an extraordinary move.

The Bank of Israel has not intervened in currency trading despite the shekel’s surge, though it is widely believed that if the dollar falls below three shekels in sustained trading, the central bank would step in by purchasing hundreds of millions of dollars to stabilize the market. As of this writing, that line has been briefly breached but not held.

Why the Shekel Is So Strong

Here are the key reasons why the ILS is among the top gainers versus the USD and other currencies:

US Stock Market Gains and Institutional Hedging

This is one of the most important and least-discussed drivers of the shekel’s strength — and it requires some explanation.

Israeli institutional investors — pension funds, insurance companies, and mutual funds — have significantly increased their exposure to US equity markets over the past decade. Hundreds of billions of shekels are invested in US stocks, US bonds, and dollar-denominated assets. When US markets rise, the value of those holdings increases in dollar terms.

But here is the structural dynamic: when those holdings increase in dollar value, the institutions’ dollar exposure also increases relative to their shekel liabilities. To manage that currency risk, they need to hedge — which means selling dollars and buying shekels. The stronger US markets perform, the more dollar hedging Israeli institutions need to do, and the more buying pressure is placed on the shekel.

This creates a somewhat paradoxical situation: strong US stock market performance directly strengthens the Israeli shekel, because it forces more institutional hedging activity. The surge in US markets since late 2024 has been a significant tailwind for the ILS through exactly this mechanism.

Interest Rate Differential

Currency strength is heavily influenced by interest rate differentials — the difference in interest rates between two countries. When one country offers meaningfully higher rates than another, capital flows toward the higher-yielding currency as investors seek better returns.

Israel’s interest rate, while having been cut modestly in recent quarters, remains relatively high compared to what prevailed in the ultra-low-rate era of the 2010s. More importantly, the interest rate differential between Israel and the US has shifted in Israel’s favor as the Federal Reserve has paused or cut rates in 2025–2026 while the Bank of Israel has maintained a cautious, gradual easing path.

This differential makes the shekel attractive for carry trade positioning — investors borrowing in lower-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding ones — adding another structural layer of buying pressure.

The Tech Industry Dollar Inflows

Israel’s technology sector is one of the most productive per capita in the world. The country has more Nasdaq-listed companies than any nation outside the US and China, and its startup ecosystem generates a constant stream of acquisitions, venture capital raises, and IPO proceeds — almost all denominated in US dollars.

When an Israeli tech company is acquired by a US corporation or raises a large venture round, the proceeds typically flow back to Israel in dollars. Those dollars are then converted into shekels to pay employees, rent offices, and fund local operations. Each conversion is a dollar-selling, shekel-buying transaction that puts upward pressure on the currency.

This has been a structural feature of the Israeli economy for years. What has amplified it recently is the scale of the AI investment wave, which has brought significant new capital into Israeli AI and deep tech companies — all of it ultimately flowing through the shekel.

Bank of Israel Standing Aside

Perhaps the most important factor in the shekel’s recent surge is what is not happening: the Bank of Israel is not intervening to weaken it.

In previous periods of shekel strength, the Bank of Israel was an active participant in the foreign exchange market, buying dollars to slow the shekel’s appreciation and protect Israeli exporters. That intervention effectively capped how strong the shekel could get.

The Bank of Israel’s current stance is deliberate: allowing the shekel to strengthen helps cool inflation by making imports cheaper, which aligns with its mandate to maintain price stability. With inflation having been a concern across developed markets, the central bank has essentially chosen inflation control over exporter protection — at least for now. UBS has noted that the Bank of Israel’s cautious stance has been one of the key factors supporting the shekel’s strength, alongside Israel’s economic fundamentals and increasing dollar hedge ratios from institutional investors.

This is a policy choice, and it can be reversed. But until inflation is firmly under control or exporters’ pain becomes politically unsustainable, the Bank of Israel appears content to let the market run.

The Risks: What Could Reverse the Trend

The shekel’s strength is real and structurally supported — but it is not without risk. Several factors could reverse the trend, some of them quickly:

Exporter pain and political pressure. Israel’s export sector — which includes not just tech but also chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products — suffers when the shekel strengthens. A shekel at 2.90 to the dollar means export revenues converted back into shekels are worth significantly less than they were 18 months ago. As that pain accumulates, political pressure on the Bank of Israel to intervene will grow. If the central bank reverses course and begins buying dollars again, the shekel could weaken rapidly.

Tech company layoffs and reduced dollar inflows. The tech sector’s dollar inflows are a primary engine of shekel strength. If global AI investment slows, if large tech companies cut their Israeli headcount, or if the pace of M&A and venture activity in Israel decelerates, the structural dollar-selling pressure that supports the shekel would ease. The tech industry is not immune to cycles, and a global slowdown in tech spending would be felt directly in the FX market.

US stock market decline. As explained above, US institutional gains drive hedging demand for shekels. The reverse is also true: if US markets fall significantly, Israeli institutions would reduce their dollar hedges, selling shekels and buying dollars — weakening the currency. The shekel and the S&P 500 are more correlated than most people realize.

Geopolitical escalation. The shekel’s resilience to geopolitical risk has been remarkable — it barely flinched during the Iran tensions of early 2026. But there are limits. A significant escalation involving Israel directly could revive the geopolitical risk premium that has largely been priced out of the currency over the past year.

Bank of Israel intervention. It is widely believed that if the dollar falls below three shekels in sustained trading, the central bank would purchase hundreds of millions of dollars to defend that level. The 2.89 level reached in May 2026 is already below that threshold on an intraday basis. If the shekel continues to strengthen, intervention becomes increasingly likely — and a central bank with unlimited capacity to buy dollars can move a currency quickly.

What’s Next for USD/ILS?

The question everyone with exposure to the shekel — whether through Israeli assets, salary payments, or business operations — is asking: how much further can this go?

UBS projects the USD/ILS rate to remain in the 3.20–3.30 range through mid-2026, which suggests the bank sees the current move below 3.00 as an overshoot. Most mainstream forecasters expect some mean reversion — a partial weakening of the shekel as the Bank of Israel intervenes and some of the structural tailwinds ease.

The more aggressive models see USD/ILS potentially reaching 2.70–2.80 if current trends persist — a scenario that would cause significant economic distress for Israeli exporters and likely trigger forceful central bank intervention.

Our view: the structural case for shekel strength remains intact. The tech sector is not going away, institutional hedging demand is structural rather than cyclical, and the interest rate differential is unlikely to reverse sharply in the near term. But the shekel is approaching levels where intervention risk becomes very real, and the 2.80–2.90 zone is likely to be strongly defended by the Bank of Israel if tested persistently.

For investors and businesses with shekel exposure, the lesson of the past 18 months is clear: underestimating the shekel has been an expensive mistake. Whether that lesson remains valid at current levels is the most important FX question in Israel today.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Currency markets are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research before making investment or hedging decisions.