Every now and then a stock shows up where the numbers sound almost too good. NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) is one of them right now: the whole company is valued at only a little more than the cash it has in the bank. About $1.86 billion in cash, a market value of roughly $2.1 billion, and a nuclear reactor business thrown in on top. So I went through the Q3 report, the earnings call and the filings to see what you would really be buying.
The short version is that the cash is real, but not all of it is free. That is why the stock keeps sliding even after a quarter where the loss got a lot smaller, and it is the one thing that decides whether SMR can rise again.
SMR trades close to its cash. About $1.86 billion in cash and no debt, against a market value of roughly $2.1 billion. That is about $4.33 of cash per share (our calculation), and the stock is around $5.
The loss shrank, but nothing is signed. Q3 net loss fell to $45.7 million, yet revenue was only $281,000 and there is still no binding order for reactor modules.
The cash is not all free. A binding TVA deal could send roughly $0.8 to $1.2 billion of it to partner ENTRA1 first (our estimate, the contract amounts are redacted).
Wall Street is cautious. The stock is about 90% below its record, and Barclays, UBS and Wedbush are all negative, with price targets of $5 to $6.
Our view: it can rise again, but it needs news, meaning a binding deal, not just time. It is a speculative stock for patient investors.
Table of contents
What Does NuScale Actually Sell?
NuScale designs small modular reactors, usually shortened to SMRs. A traditional nuclear plant is one huge reactor, often around 1,000 megawatts, built on site over many years. An SMR flips that idea around: a smaller reactor module that is built in a factory and shipped to the site, which in theory makes it cheaper and faster to put together. NuScale’s module produces about 77 megawatts of electricity, and its design has been approved by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (the NRC, the body that licenses reactors). NuScale says a single plant can use up to 12 modules, or 924 megawatts in total, according to its Q3 earnings release.
Here is the part that confuses a lot of people. NuScale does not build or run power plants. It sells the modules, plus engineering and licensing services around them. And on its biggest project it does not even deal with the end customer directly. A company called ENTRA1 Energy holds the exclusive worldwide rights to sell NuScale’s technology, according to the agreement the two signed in August 2025. ENTRA1 has been talking to the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA, the large US government-owned utility) about a program of up to 6 gigawatts, which is roughly 72 modules, according to Motley Fool’s reading of company statements. If it goes ahead, ENTRA1 would own the plants and sell the electricity to TVA.
So what has actually been signed? Not much yet, and that is the whole story. The ENTRA1 and TVA agreement from September 2025 is non-binding, which means either side can still walk away. Even a binding power purchase agreement (a PPA, a long-term contract to buy electricity at an agreed price) would not be a module order. The CFO said on the call that the PPA is not the sale of modules. The order would come later, in a separate agreement between NuScale and ENTRA1, which means there are still steps between a signed power deal and real revenue.
On the building side, there is real progress. NuScale signed a deal with Doosan Enerbility, a South Korean heavy-equipment maker, to fabricate the first reactor components, and Hopkins described it as moving from designing to manufacturing. The company says it works with more than 60 suppliers. On the Romanian project, RoPower, NuScale says it remains engaged with its partners after a change of government there, but it gave no timetable.
The Q3 Numbers: Tiny Revenue, Much Smaller Loss
NuScale reported its third quarter on November 5. The revenue line looks ugly, $281,000 against $8.2 million a year ago, but it is a bit misleading. Last year’s number came from engineering work for the Romanian project, and that work has ended. The loss is the line to focus on.
| Metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $281K | $8.24M | Romania design work ended |
| Net loss | -$45.7M | -$532.6M | Last year had a huge one-off charge |
| Loss per share | -$0.11 | -$1.85 | Beat estimates, per GuruFocus |
| Research and development | $18.0M | $11.1M | Spending on the design is rising |
| General and administrative | $27.9M | $519.2M | Where last year’s one-off sat |
| Investment income | $19.1M | $5.8M | Interest on the cash pile |
| Cash and investments | ~$1.9B | ~$916M | Doubled, mostly from selling shares |
Source: NuScale’s Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K filed November 5, 2026) and earnings call. Quarter ended September 30. The company rounds cash to $1.9 billion; the balance sheet lines add up to about $1.86 billion.
Why did the loss drop from $532.6 million to $45.7 million? Because last year’s quarter, we believe, carried a giant one-time cost. General and administrative spending jumped to $519.2 million in Q3 2025, and the press release says G&A fell by $491.3 million this year. Our read is that most of that swing is the first payment NuScale owed ENTRA1, which Motley Fool reports was booked as a $507.4 million expense (the filings do not tie the two together, so this is our inference). That charge is gone, so the year-over-year comparison flatters this quarter. So the real running loss is about $45 million a quarter, which is a slow-burn loss and not the kind that threatens the company.
One warning about the “beat” you may see in headlines. The loss per share of $0.11 was better than estimates, but analyst estimates vary a lot by source (anywhere from a $0.12 to a $0.26 loss), and revenue was far below what analysts expected, which ranged from about $4 million to $10 million depending on the source. So it was a messy quarter, not a clean win.
Why Is the Stock Down So Much?
Let’s put the move in context. SMR closed at a record $53.43 in October 2025, and the November 5 close of $4.37 was its lowest since March 2024, both according to Motley Fool. Over the last month alone it fell 39% to $5.38 by October 22, according to TIKR, while its nuclear peer Oklo fell 33%. It was already down about 53% for the year by October 12, per 24/7 Wall St.
There was not one single reason. In mid-October a hotter-than-expected inflation report pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.26% on October 14 (it has since eased), and SMR fell 7% in morning trading and 10% over the session that day, according to 24/7 Wall St. and TIKR. Companies whose profits are years away get hit hardest when interest rates rise, because investors are less willing to wait. Then came the analyst downgrades, and the one that stood out was Barclays on October 20, which cut SMR to Underweight and lowered its price target to $5 from $11. Its main worry: no binding plant order exists, and the ENTRA1 and TVA talks could drag into 2027.
| Analyst | Rating | Price target | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Underweight | $5 (from $11) | October 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Sell | $6 (from $10) | September 2026 |
| Wedbush | Underperform | $5 | Initiated, early November |
| RBC | Not stated | $7 (from $10) | October 2026 |
| Truist | Not stated | $8 | Date not given |
| Citi | Not stated | $4 | Date not given |
Source: TIKR and 24/7 Wall St., reporting analyst notes as of early November 2026. Some ratings and dates were not given in the sources. TIKR also showed an average target of $11.07 as of October 22, which still includes older, more bullish views and has been falling fast.
Then there is the dilution. Dilution simply means a company creates new shares and sells them, so each existing share owns a smaller slice. NuScale raised about $984 million from share sales in the first nine months of 2026, and its Class A share count went from 318 million at the end of 2025 to 410 million at the end of September, an increase of about 29%. That is where the doubled cash balance came from. A new program to sell up to $750 million of shares started in August, though NuScale sold no shares in Q3, according to Motley Fool.
The Catch: What Happens to the Cash if the TVA Deal Gets Signed
This is the part most headlines skip, and it is why I would not treat the $1.86 billion as pure savings. Under the August 2025 agreement, NuScale pays ENTRA1 in three steps for every module it expects to sell through ENTRA1. It is 15% of the total when ENTRA1 signs a non-binding document with a customer, 35% when there is a binding power purchase agreement, and 50% when a module order is signed. The money flows from NuScale to ENTRA1, not the other way around.
The first step has already happened. Motley Fool reports it was booked as a $507.4 million expense, with $247.5 million paid in 2025 and $259.9 million in the first half of 2026. The dollar amounts in the contract itself are blacked out, so the next two payments are our estimates, working backwards from that first one. If $507.4 million is 15% for 72 modules, then the 35% step comes to roughly $1.18 billion at full scope, or about $0.79 billion if only the 48 modules the contract allows in that step are covered. The third step, 50% at the module order, would be roughly $1.69 billion.
| Step | Trigger | Rough payment | Cash left | Cash per share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today | September 30 balance sheet | — | $1.86B | ~$4.33 |
| 35% step, 48 modules | Binding power purchase agreement | ~$0.79B | ~$1.07B | ~$2.49 |
| 35% step, 72 modules | Binding agreement, full scope | ~$1.18B | ~$0.68B | ~$1.57 |
| 50% step, 72 modules | Module order signed | ~$1.69B | More than is left | — |
Our calculations, not company figures. Based on the $507.4 million first-step expense (Motley Fool) and the milestone percentages in the ENTRA1 agreement filed with the SEC, assuming about 430 million shares. They ignore the contract’s yearly price increase of at least 5%, interest income and ongoing losses, so treat them as the order of magnitude.
So Can SMR Rise Again?
Right now the market is valuing the entire reactor business at roughly $300 million (our calculation: a market value of about $2.1 billion minus $1.86 billion of cash, and the company has no debt). That is a very low price for a reactor design the NRC has already approved, if the project turns real. It is also why some investors think the stock is already close to a floor.
The problem is that the cash cushion buys time, not a reason to buy. Without any ENTRA1 payments, the company is burning about $45 million a quarter after interest income, which by our rough math gives it roughly ten years of money. That sounds comfortable. But the stock did not fall 90% because of a cash problem. It fell because of a timing problem, and a long delay brings its own risk: more share sales to fund the wait, which would shrink the slice every current shareholder owns.
For SMR to rise, we think something has to change that the market can point to. The cleanest one would be a binding TVA agreement, because it would turn a story into a contract, even if it costs some cash. A first manufactured module from Doosan or a progress on the Romanian project would also help. What will not do it is time alone. Barclays does not expect a deal before early 2027, and 24/7 Wall St. notes analysts say it may not be signed until then.
Bull Case vs Bear Case
| Bull Case | Bear Case |
|---|---|
| About $1.86B in cash and no debt, close to the whole market value | Up to roughly $1.2B of that cash could go to ENTRA1 once a binding power contract is signed |
| NRC-certified design, a real moat in a business where licensing takes years | No binding customer order, and the TVA deal is non-binding |
| Net loss down to $45.7M a quarter, roughly ten years of runway at that pace | Revenue of $281K, so almost nothing is coming in |
| Doosan is building the first components, so the product is moving from paper to metal | ENTRA1 keeps the right to buy from other suppliers, so the TVA route is not a sure thing for NuScale |
| Possible TVA program of up to 6 GW, roughly 72 modules | Share count up about 29% this year, with a $750M share-sale program available |
| Stock about 90% off the peak, so expectations are very low | Barclays, UBS and Wedbush are all negative, and the stock is sensitive to interest rates |
Risks to Know Before You Look at SMR
No binding order. Everything in the bull case depends on a TVA deal that is not signed. Management gave no date on the call. If it slips to 2027 or later, the stock may stay in the same place.
Dependence on ENTRA1. Under the August 2025 agreement, ENTRA1 has the exclusive rights to sell NuScale’s technology, but it also keeps the choice to buy from other suppliers. NuScale agreed to use its best efforts for ENTRA1’s orders, but it does not get a guaranteed customer out of it.
Dilution. The cash was raised by selling shares, and a $750 million program is available for more. Any new sale at a low price hurts existing holders more than one at a high price.
Execution. The first modules are still being made: the Doosan contract covers first-article production, meaning the very first units. That will show how hard these are to build and what they cost, and suppliers told the company they want firm orders before they build tooling.
Interest rates and mood. This is a stock whose profits are years away, so it moves with the nuclear theme and with rates. It can fall again even if nothing changes at the company.
Key Catalysts to Watch
| Catalyst | Direction | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Binding ENTRA1 and TVA power agreement | Bull for the business, but it triggers a large cash payment to ENTRA1 | Management gave no date; Barclays sees early 2027 at the earliest |
| First components from Doosan | Bull if on time and on budget; proof the module can be built | Ongoing |
| Romania (RoPower) progress | Bull if talks with the new government move forward | No timetable given |
| New share sales | Bear if done at low prices; watch the $750M program | Any time |
| More analyst downgrades or upgrades | Watch: most targets are now between $4 and $8 | Ongoing |
| Interest rates and the Fed | Watch: higher yields hit long-dated growth stocks | Fed meeting on December 9, 2026 |
So where does all of that leave us? Here is how we see it.
SMR is not expensive. At about $5 you are paying close to what the company holds in cash, and the cash is real. But the cash is also the reason to be careful, because a signed TVA deal could send up to roughly $1.2 billion of it to ENTRA1 before NuScale sells a module. Once you subtract that, you are paying a lot more for the reactor business than the headline suggests.
Can it rise again? Yes, but we think it needs news, not time. The most likely trigger is a binding TVA agreement. Even a quarterly loss that keeps shrinking will not move the stock much, because the market has stopped caring about the loss and started caring about orders.
This is a speculative stock for people who can wait years and accept that it may go lower first. If you want the bigger picture first, our guide to small modular reactors explains the whole theme, and our Oklo stock analysis looks at the other big name in it. To pick a platform, see our investment app reviews. And as always, size any position as if it could fall another 50%.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. SMR is a speculative security that carries a significant risk of loss. Data comes from NuScale’s Q3 2026 earnings release and 8-K (filed November 5, 2026), the Q3 earnings call (November 5, 2026), the ENTRA1 Partnership Milestones Agreement filed with the SEC, and reporting by Motley Fool, TIKR, 24/7 Wall St. and GuruFocus, as of November 6 to 8, 2026. Share prices and analyst figures differ between sources and change quickly; amounts marked as our calculation are estimates, not company figures. Always do your own research before making any investment decision.