That’s it, 2019 is behind and 2020 is a blank page. While global economic trends are a function of macroeconomic trends and political developments, economic and political events can be a major factor in the direction of financial markets in the upcoming here. Therefore, we have collected the major political and economic events that could shape up the global economy in 2020.
2020 United States presidential election – November
The biggest event of the year, the 2020 United States presidential election will take place on November 3, 2020. Donald Trump, who has completed his first presidential service, is waiting for the Democratic Party’s winner, which at the time of writing appears to be Joseph R. Biden Jr. with 27% of the votes.
The 2020 United States presidential election will have a significant influence on various spheres including the US-China trade war, sanctions over Iran and Turkey, and the US domestic economy.
Brexit, the United Kingdom leaves the European Union
On January 31, 2020, the United Kingdom is expected to complete its ratification of the deal and exit from the European Union after 47 years. The exit process from the EU is a long process that spreads throughout the whole year and can be finally completed on December 31, 2020.
Brexit is most likely to have a major impact on the global economy in 2020 and beyond. Similarly to previous years, financial traders will follow every piece of news that is related to Brexit.
US-China Trade War progress
The US-China trade war represents a significant burden for the global economy. The largest two economies in the world cause uncertainty for global trade. According to UBS, should the trade war continues to escalate, U.S.-China negotiations fall apart and all tariffs go up to 30%, global growth will result at 2.8%, and US growth at 1.0%. Furthermore, the US-China trade war weighs heavily on equity markets and prevent central banks around the world from increasing interest rates.
Global monetary easing policy cycle might come to an end
Is it possible? After more than a decade of global monetary easing policy, it seems that the largest economies have shown signs of solid growth that might end the aggressive easing monetary policy. In the United States, the Federal Reserve may not feel the need to continue its easing monetary policy, while the ECB in Europe, the Bank of Japan, and the Chinese central bank are facing more complicated challenges.
The paradox, the bizarre phenomenon of negative interest rates is expected to continue in 2020. In fact, negative rates are here to stay in 2020 and might even go lower. Regardless, investors all over the world will keep an eye on central banks’ interest rates direction.
21–22 November – G20 Meeting in Saudi Arabia
The 2020 G20 Riyadh summit will take place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on 21–22 November. Saudi Arabia is the first-ever Arab country to host this event and plays an important role in global trade. Leaders of the G20 group will discuss trade wars, tariffs, sanctions, global trade policy and more.
Cryptocurrencies events 2020 – Libra, Ethereum 2.0, national digital currencies, and DeFi adoption
Cryptocurrencies are becoming a part of the larger financial system and there are many events to keep an eye on in 2020. First, Facebook is expected to release the Libra coin in 2020. Then, Ethereum 2.0 scheduled to launch on January 3, 2020 – Ethereum developers have developed a “proof-of-stake” consensus model that aims to replace the current “proof-of-work” consensus model which was adopted by most digital coins.
Other major events in the crypto world include the issuing of national digital coins by central banks, further regulation of cryptocurrencies and crypto-assets, and the recent mass adoption of DeFi projects.